The question
Predict Wine quality using the fixed 600-row teaching sample, feature scaling and an internal target transformation. Inspect convergence and original-unit errors.
data/ml-learning/ML-X15.csv Complete workflow and evidenceYour inputs
Challenge input · ML-X15
600 observations. One red or white wine sample. Load the CSV file yourself.
Download challenge input CSV · Original source dataset · Source and original dictionary
Ready to load: comma-delimited UTF-8, header row, no saved index. No filtering or target construction is required. Exact seed-42 sample of 600 rows after source deduplication; do not sample or deduplicate it again.
fixed acidity | volatile acidity | citric acid | residual sugar | chlorides | free sulfur dioxide | total sulfur dioxide | density | pH | sulphates | alcohol | quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 6.6 | 0.043 | 22 | 141 | 0.9937 | 3.36 | 0.6 | 10.4 | 6 |
| 6.4 | 0.3 | 0.27 | 4.4 | 0.055 | 17 | 135 | 0.9925 | 3.23 | 0.44 | 12.2 | 6 |
| 6.5 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 2.2 | 0.028 | 36 | 92 | 0.99076 | 3.27 | 0.59 | 11.9 | 7 |
| 8 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 6.8 | 0.047 | 13 | 134 | 0.99616 | 3.23 | 0.7 | 10 | 5 |
| 8.9 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1.9 | 0.067 | 25 | 57 | 0.997 | 3.18 | 1.36 | 10.3 | 6 |
| 6.6 | 0.21 | 0.39 | 2.3 | 0.041 | 31 | 102 | 0.99221 | 3.22 | 0.58 | 10.9 | 7 |
| 8.8 | 0.24 | 0.54 | 2.5 | 0.083 | 25 | 57 | 0.9983 | 3.39 | 0.54 | 9.2 | 5 |
| 5.4 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 2.5 | 0.037 | 10 | 51 | 0.98878 | 3.04 | 0.58 | 12.6 | 6 |
Column meanings and units
quality: ordered sensory score (0–10). alcohol: volume percent. pH: acidity scale. Other chemistry units follow the linked source dictionary.
The score is ordinal but modelled as regression here. ML removes exact duplicate rows before splitting. Chemistry must be available at prediction time; predictive associations do not establish effects of changing an ingredient.
Ready to load: comma-delimited UTF-8, header row, no saved index. No filtering or target construction is required. Exact seed-42 sample of 600 rows after source deduplication; do not sample or deduplicate it again.
| Column | Stored type |
|---|---|
fixed acidity | float64 |
volatile acidity | float64 |
citric acid | float64 |
residual sugar | float64 |
chlorides | float64 |
free sulfur dioxide | float64 |
total sulfur dioxide | float64 |
density | float64 |
pH | float64 |
sulphates | float64 |
alcohol | float64 |
quality | int64 |
How we validate this model
Reserve 20% of the declared population for the final test using split seed 42. Use a random split.
Use the same five training folds, shuffled with seed 42, for reference comparison, candidates and selection. Use out-of-fold training predictions for diagnosis. Select with negative RMSE (larger is better) and compare with a training-mean reference. Report final RMSE in original target units. Open final-test evidence after selection and diagnosis.
The file is available in the Python working folder. Load it yourself.
- Predict Wine
qualityusing the fixed 600-row teaching sample, feature scaling and an internal target transformation. - Inspect convergence and original-unit errors.
cv_resultsreference_resultschosen_nameloss_curvesresidualsfinal_rmseOutputs you create
cv_results- Dataframe indexed by the requested model IDs, with
initial_score,selected_scoreandsettingscolumns. - Scores are observed mean training-fold scores;
settingsdescribes the chosen recipe.
- Dataframe indexed by the requested model IDs, with
reference_resultscross_validateresult for the dummy reference; test_score contains five scores.
chosen_name- Model ID nominated from training evidence.
loss_curves- Dictionary of available neural training-loss histories by model ID.
residuals- Training-only
actual,predictedandactual-minus-predictedresidualevidence.
- Training-only
final_rmse- Root mean squared error in original target units.
Deliverables
These conditions describe a complete workflow. Use the declared Python variables beside the editor; Check inspects evidence from your Run.
Python name key
Teal outlines name table columns. Violet left rules name Python objects. Dotted rules mark syntax, functions and parameters. Use each name exactly as shown.
Words in this task
DataFrame- a table with rows and columns
- numeric
- a number, rather than text
- dummy
- a simple reference model used for comparison
- folds
- training-data groups used to compare models on the same held-out rows
- out-of-fold
- predictions made for training rows by models that did not fit those rows
- aligned
- matched by row or category identity, rather than guessed position
- residuals
- observed values minus predicted values
- RMSE
- root mean squared error: an error measure that gives larger errors more weight
Data boundary
- Load the supplied challenge CSV, define the declared
X/yand keep aligned row identities through the split. - Keep learned preparation inside each training fit.
- Load the supplied challenge CSV, define the declared
Validation & selection
- Compare the requested
initialmodel families with a dummy reference on matching trainingfolds. - Evaluate the declared
settingswhere applicable and choose from training evidence.
- Compare the requested
Diagnosis
- Use out-of-fold training predictions to inspect
residualsor class errors before opening the final test. - Inspect neural convergence and loss history as well as prediction error.
- Use out-of-fold training predictions to inspect
Final evidence
- Fit the nominated model on training rows and evaluate the reserved rows once.
- Report saved predictions, the requested metrics and labelled evidence
- Explain limitations without using the final test for further selection.
The playground workflow
Use the same data boundary as ML → Workflow: frame, split, explore, prepare, validate against a reference, diagnose, then make the final evaluation. Each step answers one question.
- Choose what to predictEstimate wine quality from 11 selected inputs; duplicate chemistry rows are removed before the split.
- Split data and save the test setWhich rows are available for learning, and which are being saved for the final check?
- Explore training dataDoes fixed acidity show a training pattern related to wine quality?
- Define the preparation recipeWhat preparation does this particular model need?
- Build the model pipelineCan one small hidden layer learn nonlinear numeric patterns?
- Validate the initial modelDo validation results stay reasonably similar across folds?
- Compare with a simple referenceDo the selected features beat a simple guess on the same training folds?
- Tune the modelDoes a different small hidden-layer size help?
- Inspect validation errorsDo training-only residuals form a roughly random cloud around zero?
- Final testHow does the saved final wine quality error compare with the initial-model CV and any selected-setting CV for Wine Quality · Multiple continuous features, and what pattern did the model miss?
Data policy Keep target-derived inputs out of X. Use training-only selection for prediction.
Help Hints & explained solution
Choose the amount of help you need. Opening one hint does not reveal the others.
Hint 1 — Think
Scaled optimisation must return meaningful output units.
Hint 2 — Tools
MLPRegressor, TransformedTargetRegressor and nested width parameters.
Revisit: Neural regression checkpoint
Hint 3 — Approach
Keep target transformation inside fitting, compare widths and report inverse-transformed predictions.
Explained solution
This complete script replaces the editor contents. It includes the input setup and the workflow.
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
df=pd.read_csv('data/ml-learning/ML-X15.csv')
from sklearn.base import clone
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split, KFold, cross_validate, cross_val_predict, GridSearchCV
from sklearn.dummy import DummyRegressor
from sklearn.metrics import root_mean_squared_error
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
X=df[['fixed acidity', 'volatile acidity', 'citric acid', 'residual sugar', 'chlorides', 'free sulfur dioxide', 'total sulfur dioxide', 'density', 'pH', 'sulphates', 'alcohol']]
y=df['quality']
X_train,X_test,y_train,y_test=train_test_split(X,y,test_size=.2,random_state=42)
folds=KFold(n_splits=5,shuffle=True,random_state=42)
candidates={}
grids={}
# Prepare inputs and construct the candidate pipeline.
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
preprocessor = StandardScaler()
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline
from sklearn.neural_network import MLPRegressor
from sklearn.compose import TransformedTargetRegressor
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
network = MLPRegressor(hidden_layer_sizes=(24,), max_iter=800, early_stopping=True, tol=0.001, random_state=42)
model = TransformedTargetRegressor(regressor=network, transformer=StandardScaler())
pipeline = Pipeline([('prepare', preprocessor), ('model', model)])
model = pipeline
candidates['mlp_reg']=model
grids['mlp_reg']={'model__regressor__hidden_layer_sizes': [(16,), (24,)]}
# Validate initial candidates on matching training folds.
initial_results={name:cross_validate(candidate,X_train,y_train,cv=folds,scoring='neg_root_mean_squared_error') for name,candidate in candidates.items()}
# Compare with a simple reference before tuning.
reference_results=cross_validate(DummyRegressor(strategy='mean'),X_train,y_train,cv=folds,scoring='neg_root_mean_squared_error')
rows=[]
selected={}
for name,candidate in candidates.items():
initial=initial_results[name]
grid=grids[name]
if grid:
search=GridSearchCV(candidate,grid,cv=folds,scoring='neg_root_mean_squared_error',n_jobs=1)
search.fit(X_train,y_train)
selected[name]=search.best_estimator_
validation_score=float(search.best_score_)
settings=search.best_params_
else:
selected[name]=candidate
validation_score=float(np.mean(initial['test_score']))
settings='Keep defaults: no production search'
rows.append({'model':name,'initial_score':float(np.mean(initial['test_score'])),'selected_score':validation_score,'settings':str(settings)})
cv_results=pd.DataFrame(rows).set_index('model')
# This solution nominates by mean training-fold score. Other evidence-based choices can be defensible.
chosen_name=cv_results.selected_score.idxmax()
chosen=selected[chosen_name]
oof_predictions=cross_val_predict(chosen,X_train,y_train,cv=folds)
diagnostic_y=y_train
residuals=pd.DataFrame({'actual':diagnostic_y,'predicted':oof_predictions,'residual':diagnostic_y-oof_predictions})
fig,ax=plt.subplots(figsize=(6,4))
sns.scatterplot(x=residuals.predicted,y=residuals.residual,s=12,ax=ax)
ax.axhline(0,color='black')
ax.set(xlabel='Training-validation prediction',ylabel='Residual',title='Training-only residuals')
fig.tight_layout()
fig.savefig('diagnostic.png',dpi=150,bbox_inches='tight')
final_model=clone(chosen).fit(X_train,y_train)
final_predictions=final_model.predict(X_test)
final_rmse=root_mean_squared_error(y_test,final_predictions)
print('Final RMSE:',final_rmse)
loss_curves={}
for name,candidate in selected.items():
fitted=candidate.named_steps['model']
if hasattr(fitted,'regressor_'):
fitted=fitted.regressor_
if hasattr(fitted,'loss_curve_'):
loss_curves[name]=list(fitted.loss_curve_)
View input setup in this script
These opening lines are included in the complete script above. They load the challenge input.
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
df=pd.read_csv('data/ml-learning/ML-X15.csv')Why these steps exist
- The input is the exact fixed deduplicated 600-row sample. Feature scaling and target transformation are fitted within each neural training fit; width comparison and loss/residual evidence precede final evaluation. Predicting through the wrapper restores quality-score units for RMSE.
Another valid approach
Equivalent ordinary Python is welcome. A defensible candidate or grouping need not match the solution’s choice; objective evidence must remain consistent.